What Is El Nino
In Spanish, El Niño means ‘The Christ child.’ It was named by Peruvian fishermen at the turn of the 19th century when they noticed a warm current off the South American coast around Christmas time. A fitting name, because the only predictable thing about El Niño’s next tantrum, is that it will strike like an irregular heartbeat upon the planet, leaving a path of destruction in its wake.
In his recent book entitled: El Niño: The weather phenomenon that changed the world, Ross Couper-Johnston catalogues disastrous world events against the dates of suspected El Niño activity since early history. His findings repeatedly confirm the physicality of El Niño (and his tag-along, ‘teary’ sister of opposites, La Niña), are alternatively responsible for droughts and floods and the loss of millions of lives throughout history; triggering wars, changing ideologies, shifting populations and even bringing about the end whole civilisations.
What Couper-Johnston also establishes is that despite the ability to track the ‘tell-tail’ signs of a developing El Niño (or the passing of one), scientists and sociologists still can’t accurately determine the exact contribution of either phenomenon to world events, for two reasons.
Firstly, because of unrelated natural disasters and the stresses people may already have been facing from other sources, such as political and economic stagnation.
And secondly, and most importantly, because despite the El Niño system being the world’s greatest source of climatic fluctuation on a year-to-year scale, there are still other important oscillations within the global atmospheric exchange, particularly outside the tropics; where natural random variations also act as variables. In other words, missing links and inconsistencies abound as the bigger and longer cycles of our climate are played out against the cosmic backdrop of our universe.
The precise impact on El Niño from an increase of 6C in global temperatures - as recently envisaged by some scientists - remains unclear. What we do know is that an increase of just 5C has been enough to send the last Ice Age into permanent melt-down; that it took 100,000 years to achieve, and that about 1,000 years ago there was a cooling of about 1C globally (known as the Little Ice Age). We also know that the current reading of Carbon Dioxide (CO2) in our atmosphere is between 400 – 600ppm (parts per million) which is an increase of about 16 per cent since 1958 when it was first measured by Charles Keeling. We also know from historical data that when CO2 levels drop, so does the temperature.
According to Couper-Johnston there have been 113 El Niño’s recorded since 1525, which gives an average of about one El Niño in every four years. Interestingly he also notes that the more intense catastrophic El Niño’s have occurred approximately 15 years or so apart, and not always because of warmer ocean conditions.
Graphic Source: Bureau of Meteorology Climate Change Gallery
In his recent book entitled: El Niño: The weather phenomenon that changed the world, Ross Couper-Johnston catalogues disastrous world events against the dates of suspected El Niño activity since early history. His findings repeatedly confirm the physicality of El Niño (and his tag-along, ‘teary’ sister of opposites, La Niña), are alternatively responsible for droughts and floods and the loss of millions of lives throughout history; triggering wars, changing ideologies, shifting populations and even bringing about the end whole civilisations.
What Couper-Johnston also establishes is that despite the ability to track the ‘tell-tail’ signs of a developing El Niño (or the passing of one), scientists and sociologists still can’t accurately determine the exact contribution of either phenomenon to world events, for two reasons.
Firstly, because of unrelated natural disasters and the stresses people may already have been facing from other sources, such as political and economic stagnation.
And secondly, and most importantly, because despite the El Niño system being the world’s greatest source of climatic fluctuation on a year-to-year scale, there are still other important oscillations within the global atmospheric exchange, particularly outside the tropics; where natural random variations also act as variables. In other words, missing links and inconsistencies abound as the bigger and longer cycles of our climate are played out against the cosmic backdrop of our universe.
A schematic representation of the east-west Walker Circulation of the tropics. In normal seasons air rises over the warm western Pacific and flows eastward in the upper troposphere to subside in the eastern Pacific high pressure system and then flows westward (i.e. from high to low pressure) in the surface layers across the tropical Pacific. Weaker cells also exist over the Indian and Atlantic Oceans. In El Niño years, this circulation is weakened, the central and eastern Pacific Ocean warms and the main area of ascent moves to the central Pacific.
The precise impact on El Niño from an increase of 6C in global temperatures - as recently envisaged by some scientists - remains unclear. What we do know is that an increase of just 5C has been enough to send the last Ice Age into permanent melt-down; that it took 100,000 years to achieve, and that about 1,000 years ago there was a cooling of about 1C globally (known as the Little Ice Age). We also know that the current reading of Carbon Dioxide (CO2) in our atmosphere is between 400 – 600ppm (parts per million) which is an increase of about 16 per cent since 1958 when it was first measured by Charles Keeling. We also know from historical data that when CO2 levels drop, so does the temperature.
According to Couper-Johnston there have been 113 El Niño’s recorded since 1525, which gives an average of about one El Niño in every four years. Interestingly he also notes that the more intense catastrophic El Niño’s have occurred approximately 15 years or so apart, and not always because of warmer ocean conditions.
Graphic Source: Bureau of Meteorology Climate Change Gallery
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As you know, I've also been reading about the global temps. And I don't think that can of hair spray I bought six months ago is the problem. The reference to hair spray wasn't meant to be glib; people tend to blame the ridiculous for the unexplained.
The Universe has its special tempo. We don't understand its measures.
Strange as this might sound, I think the overall stresses we allow in our lives are directly proportioned to the stress of the Universe. We are a people who have never seriously allowed peace in our lives. Why should we not expect unrest in the Universe that allows us to be?
Harmony
I do know that after every major natural disaster, a whole bunch of people claim that our behavior caused the reaction - that earth is angry. Others claim it to be the hand of God "spanking" humanity for not being more respectful, or warning humanity that the end of days is near.
My personal opinion is that humanity as a whole since the beginning of human life on earth has contributed negativily to the environment. This is one reason I get sick to my stomach when I hear talk of colonizing other planets.
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I agree, although I don't think we can underestimate the powerfully dangerous effects of CFCs and am pleased they outlawed it in most countries around the planet... CFCs make Co2 look like fresh air : with about 12,000 times the heat-trapping potential of a molecule of CO2.. In 60 years, 16 trillion tons of CFCs have made their way into the stratosphere...
But I hear you... it's like creating rain, we just have to focus on it happening, not focus on it not happening… I bought a traditional tribal rain stick and find waving it is really effective lately… I’ll keep it going…until they come and take me away..
I agree again, people forget that the earth is alive and She is watching, waiting and breathing.... one day she is likely to shake the lot of us off her back like mangy fleas, if we are not careful... it can only be a mother's love to continue to accept such disrespectful behaviour from those she cares for and nurtures....
When the leaders sign protocols to alleviate the burdens, she will produce rain... recent movements by our government and consecutive rainfalls in dams [in QLD} are proving there may be something to this...what she cannot do is cheat father time and make trees grow quicker… however, if the earth is warmer and more tropical, trees will grow faster naturally by design… don’t they….
I loved your take on the Universes stresses in proportion to ours... rest in the Universe that allows us to be... peace indeed...
thanks...
Lilla...
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I had written three paragraphs in response to you when my system crashed and I’ve lost it… I only have the tail part… so frustrating…
I think I was just building on what both you and HarmonyB were stating… but added that with the the problem of population overload on our planet is reaching critical point and without war or natural disasters there is a popping-point factor which ahs to be addressed…
In a Star Trek movie they built a machine that could kick-start life on a barren planet and called it (wait for it…) Genesis… but it was unstable and collapsed in on itself, however it left a possibility of future colonisation after it settled down … much like our earth in the early days….that's science fiction....
... However, the real problem of planetary stability is really an issue of having a moon... and I’ve just finished reading a fascinating book called ‘Who Built The Moon by Christopher Knight and Alan Butler… where the need for the moon as a stabiliser to stop the earth from rocking and rolling about the place is vital. For example without it temperatures would range in 1000s of degrees… just like it does on other worlds... but with a moon… the temperatures stay within a nice 143degree C range allowing the incubation of life…. It’s worth a read for those with a curious, open mind… but I digress...
It is this 'wobble' in the earths rotation that may be the deciding factor in El Nino activity and the fact that the moon is moving away from the earth... so eventually the wobble will increase, drought and famine increase and life may not be much chop here on earth anymore, anyway....
What gets my goat is the much the same as you... people who feel a dystopic need to perpetuate a vision of having to destroy this planet as a justification to be able to go and colonise another one… there’s no need… just go and colonise… we’ll chose where we want to stay….
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