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Enviro Warrior - Wake up and smell the Homus ... then tread lightly upon the planet.

 

Global Warming Confirmed, (Humans to Blame) It’s Getting Hot In Here...




On 2nd February the IPCC Working Group, set down its long awaited findings, of its 4th Assessment Report of Physical Science. The report is a collaboration of the UN of 2,500 scientific expert reviews, 800 contributing authors, featuring 450 leading authors from 130 countries. The Report took 6 years work and research to create, is 4 Volumnes long.

It's Official then, Global Warming is real and we are to blame. The Report outlines unequivocally, that the planet is warming faster than for the previous 2,000 years and that human activities are a major contributing factor to the increases in temperature. It outlines that without changes in our behaviour upon the planet Global Warming is unstoppable ... perhaps even with it?

The report is actually the first part of a more comprehensive assessment, set to be published in stages throughout 2007 (the IPCC conducts such assessments every five or six years). But it's hard to imagine that the other parts will pack as much punch as this first one has, as they come off the presses.

I’ve grouped the main findings into categories.

NB: where scientists say unequivocally, things are as they are stated – they are happening.

"very likely" - have a more than 90 percent chance of being so, and things they say are,

"likely" - have a more than 66 percent chance of being so.


UNEQUIVOVCAL THINGS

Things Are Getting Warmer.

"Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global mean sea level."

"Eleven of the last twelve years (1995-2006) rank among the 12 warmest years in the instrumental record of global surface temperature (since 1850)."

"The linear warming trend over the last 50 years . . . is nearly twice that for the last 100 years."

Sea Levels Are Rising

Global average sea level rose at an average rate of 1.8 mm per year over 1961 to 2003. The rate was faster over 1993 to 2003, about 3.1 mm per year."

"Observations since 1961 show that average temperature of the global ocean has increased to depths of at least 3000 m and that the ocean has been absorbing more than 80 percent of the heat added to the climate system. Such warming causes seawater to expand, contributing to sea level rise."

"Mountain glaciers and snow cover have declined on average in both hemispheres. Widespread decreases in glaciers and ice caps have contributed to sea level rise."

VERY LIKELY

We're to Blame

"Average Northern Hemisphere temperatures during the second half of the 20th century were . . . higher than during any other 50-year period in the last 500 years."

"Global climate change of the past fifty years . . . is not due to known natural causes alone."

"Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is . . . due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations."

Will It Get Worse?

"The report says that continued greenhouse gas emissions at or above current rates would cause further warming and induce many changes in the global climate system . . . larger than those observed during the 20th century."

"Hot extremes, heat waves, and heavy precipitation events will continue to become more frequent."

LIKELY

We're Changing the Weather

"There has been significant anthropogenic warming over the past 50 years averaged over each continent except Antarctica."

"Anthropogenic forcing . . . [has] contributed to changes in wind patterns, affecting extra-tropical storm tracks and temperature patterns in both hemispheres."

"Future tropical cyclones (typhoons and hurricanes) will become more intense, with larger peak wind speeds and more heavy precipitation."


~oOo~

Earlier in the week I received a PM from Ahmed, alerting me to a report in the UK Guardian Newspaper, which reported on Corporations seeking scientists to disprove Global Warming as a fact. This would be the same logic that recently drove Mrs M’s Happy Feet report. Hell, we don’t want pandemonium over penguins…

~oOo~

It seems that words like UNSTOPPABLE, UNEQUIVACAL and VERY LIKELY make the oligarchy nervous and in response to the report last week, letters were sent out from the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), an ExxonMobil-funded think-tank - with close links to the Bush administration, offering payments to scientists for articles that emphasise the shortcomings of a report from the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (IPCC).

Money insentives of $10,000, Travel expenses and additional payments were also offered.

However, the IPCC UN report was written by international experts and is widely regarded as the most comprehensive review yet of climate change science in modern history. It underpins international negotiations on new emissions targets to succeed the Kyoto agreement, the first phase of which expires in 2012. World governments were given a draft last year and invited to comment.

Climate scientists described this move to undermine the report as an attempt to cast doubt over the "overwhelming scientific evidence" on global warming. It is unanimously agreed that it is a desperate attempt by an organisation to distort science for political aims.

So folks, Like Happy Feet, that horrible movie of vice and propoganda** please be prepared for outraged, but well paid, talking heads on your TV, telling us all that (once again), it is all BUMF... Pahooey ... Baloney ... NOT TRUE ... Nun Ha, No WAY! I suspect they'll find some big mufti or Kahuna with a name tag to back it up too ... it's up to us what we believe I guess?

~oOo~

Meanwhile, the contents of the IPCC report have been an open secret since the Bush administration posted its draft copy on the internet in April. It says there is a 90% chance that human activity is warming the planet, and that global average temperatures will rise by another 1.5 to 5.8C this century, depending on emissions.

~oOo~

A Big Picture Look At Temperature.


~oOo~

Some statistics on how heat is measured by Proxy.

Tree rings - "Measurements of tree ring parameters from regions where temperature limits tree growth can be used to reconstruct surface temperature. These show that the 20th century warming is unusual since at least 1500."

Marine, lake, and cave proxies - "Annual coral records indicate a warming and/or freshening of surface seawater over the last century at most tropical locations, as well as shifts toward warmer and/or fresher waters during the mid-1800s and between 1920 and 1940."

Ice isotopes - "Analyses of stable isotopes in glacial ice provide records of climate changes at high resolution over long time periods. . . . Isotope records from Tibet and the Andes show that the climate of the 20th century was unusual with respect to the preceding 2,000 years."

Glacier length - "Records of glacier length can be used to infer temperature history. These records show global warming of approximately 0.6 degrees C from 1850 to 1990 and cooler conditions for the prior few centuries. The majority of glaciers in high mountain ranges outside the polar regions have retreated during the last 150 years, primarily as a consequence of warming."

Boreholes - "When the temperature at the ground surface changes, the temperature of the underlying substrate (soil, rock, or ice) will also change in response. . . .

Measurements of temperature beneath the ground surface show widespread warming during the most recent century and cooler conditions for the four prior centuries."

~oOo~

US Supreme Court
As many will recall from a Previous Post, the new Battle ground for global warming in America, is in the Supreme Court, where the Bush Administration continues to deny that CO2 emissions contribute to global warming, and the EPA and about 12 or so States, including Massachusetts, says it does?

Updates from that court case include the following;

Supreme Court stepped gingerly into the national debate over global warming, asking how much harm would occur if the Environmental Protection Agency continued its refusal to regulate greenhouse gases from new vehicles.

In the first case about global warming to reach the high court, a lawyer for 12 states and 13 environmental groups pressed the justices to make the government act, saying the country faces grave environmental harm.

Opening up an hour of arguments, Justice Antonin Scalia asked, "When is the predicted cataclysm?''

Chief Justice John Roberts pointed out that regulating carbon dioxide emissions from new vehicles addresses just one aspect of an issue of global dimensions.

The argument by those pushing for EPA action on vehicle emissions might or might not be valid, but it "assumes everything else is going to remain constant.

Twelve states, mainly along the nation's Atlantic and Pacific coasts, three cities, a U.S. territory and 13 environmental groups are arguing that the EPA ignored the clear language of the Clean Air Act. Under the 1970 law, carbon dioxide is an air pollutant that threatens public health and the EPA must regulate it, they said.

Carbon dioxide is produced when fossil fuels such as oil and natural gas are burned. It is the principal "greenhouse'' gas that many scientists believe is flowing into the atmosphere at an unprecedented rate, leading to the current warming cycle of the Earth and widespread ecological changes.

One way to reduce those emissions is to have more fuel-efficient cars I guess, or we could go back to the horse and buggy?

Several justices questioned whether the states and environmental groups have met their legal burden to show they will be harmed by continued EPA inaction. Petitioners to courts must meet that threshold before the merits of a case may be addressed.

The Bush administration argued in court papers that the EPA lacks the power to regulate carbon dioxide as a pollutant under the Clean Air Act. Even if it had such authority, the EPA still would not use it at this point because of uncertainty surrounding the issue of global warming, the administration said.

Global climate change is "a controversial phenomenon that is far from fully understood or defined,'' trade associations for car and truck makers and automobile dealers said in a court filing signed by former Solicitors General Theodore Olson and Kenneth Starr. They backed the administration position.

~oOo~

As we all realise the courts decision will have far-reaching effects because together, U.S. power plants and vehicles account for about 20% of the worlds output of greenhouse gases.

A separate case involving an EPA claim that the Clean Air Act similarly does not give it authority to regulate greenhouse gas emissions from power plants also is making its way through the federal courts.

~oOo~

Whichever way you look at it, Global Warming has finally been accepted and is, unfortunately, part of a cycle that has previously balanced itself out with a drop to another ice age.

(

(read more on this wobble <<here>>




Sources & photos: www.knowledgenews.com
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Comments
16 Comments. [ Add A Comment ]
1. February 7th 2007 @ 01:12. Adrienne Says:
Global warming is real-- I'm glad you wrote this
2. February 7th 2007 @ 02:54. Mrs M Says:
Hi Lilla,

This just confirms what we all knew really. And if you don't know it, then pull your head out of the sand (can't you feel the sand getting hotter?)

Mr M just came home with "An Inconvenient Truth" so I'm going to watch that tonight.

I'll tell you where I get confused and sometimes disheartened when it comes to the climate, environment etc. Every time I think I'm being a little more "green" I hear an opposing argument. Your "Back to the Future" post was littered with these sorts of arguments. Eg Organic food comes from further away, hence more fuel emissions deposited into the air. What's worse, pesticides on the food, or fuel emissions in the air?

Is there not something, somewhere that will advise me how to live a little more green without unknowingly being a detriment to the environment?

Love & stuff
Mrs M
3. February 7th 2007 @ 04:57. Adrian Says:
Hey Lilla, nice post -- looks like you put a lot of work into it. I like the fact, also, that you've included a lot of diverse information.
4. February 7th 2007 @ 09:27. Optomistic Opportunism Says:
Gotta admit, I think being green on an individual level simply involves recycling and avoiding using a car.

The rest is up to the government we voted on.

Ahem... we?

Go on, be unAustralian.

I am. Will be until the country "gets its head out of the sand." Good point, Mrs M.
5. February 7th 2007 @ 09:41. katyzzz Says:
Lilla,

I no longer have a car.

This is a tremendous post, you've done an excellent job, praising you for your commitment seems a little trite.

Do have some time off, I suspect you are not getting much, if any, reward for all of this.

I feel your frustration, for you it must be even worse.

Keep up the good work, it's a bit hard to know where all of this is leading.

katyzzz
6. February 7th 2007 @ 14:28. Wendi Says:
Fortunately, the Bush Administration is soon to expire. Hopefully, our next leader will lead us somewhere other than into turmoil.

At least there's some comfort in knowing that scientists and environmentalists far and wide are searching for healthier alternatives for fuel and energy. Nothing quite like being a day late and a dollar short, but at least efforts are being made.

Beautiful work, Lilla.

W
7. February 7th 2007 @ 20:55. Nina Says:
Great post, Lilla. I think another issue that we have to worry about is the pollution generated by China and India - as developing nations, they don't have to cut emissions under Kyoto. With the huge amount of greenhouse gases these countries are producing, I think changes need to be made now, rather than wait until they are considered 'first world.'
8. February 7th 2007 @ 22:50. Madeline Schwartz Says:
Your topic is a cruel reality that we have to face. The clock is running and we are taking the facts, seriously. It's so sad to know about all those billion dollars that the Bush administration has spent on war which has killed so many thousands of inocent people rather than to look for ways of saving our Earth.
9. February 8th 2007 @ 04:52. Lilla Says:
Thank you all for the strong solidarity and support on this topic and post. It is heartwarming to see you all there at the front line, aware and ready to implmenet the new as we slough off the old…

Apologies for the delay in replying, Mr Enviro has been in hospital and I’ve been running around from here to everywhere … flat out…*sigh*

>>> rushing now too >>>

Ommm-EEeee-AAaaaa

*Deep breathe*

~oOo~

Adrienne,
Thank you for your heartfelt encouragement… lovely to see you again.

Hi Mrs M,
Disheartening yes, but you know what they say; "when the going gets tough…" My grandmother always said, "forewarned is forearmed," and when seen in that light, the news always seems a little less depressing, albeit, time is at hand to be a little more green, indeed!

*sigh*

The only way I know how to eat more organic and save carbon is to grow your own. Plant three fruit trees to every ornamental, and four vegetable plants to every flower – that way the bees and the humans get a fair go.

I added a few bottlebrush too for the little birds, because their poo spreads the seeds for me and I’ve received so many interesting little ‘bonus’ surprises from their seedly-droppings. Last summer, I had three of the biggest sunflowers you ever saw, courtesy of the local birdies *giggle* and their lovely songs ... (and tales they tell)...

)

Bury kitchen scraps into the ground directly and get a rainwater tank. The water tastes so sweet, I almost died. The energy I get from drinking filtered rainwater is beyond explanation. Living in cities for so many generations, we have forgotten ... A smallish tank is enough water for a family of four to survive for three months.

No way I’m drinking pooh! *lol*


Hi Adrian,
Yeah, it looks like it doesn’t it, yet this one just fell together on it’s own. I wrote it one day and uploaded the pics the next. I guess I learnt from a master post creator *wink, wink* especially when offering diverse, information as a good journalist does – and for me, well it’s Creative Fun.

Thanks for your compliment.


Right On Opto,
Every little bit helps and I’m still trying to find information on what Peter Garrett is up to? Big bang theory starting to apply more and more? Hoping he’s saiving his fireworks display for the election lead up, but what good are promises?

I wish Australia would get it’s head out of America’s actually and think for itself, but we won’t go there now, I have to dash…

Loved your comment!
Thanks


Katyzzz,

Leading to...?

To dinner I hope, I’m starving.

I have to get the children from school in the meantime though and I do need to use a car for that, but I converted to Gas about 10 years ago. Oops there goes the age of my car too. But I’m not into replacing them every two years. I don’t want to be a No Soul, Own All either.

Good On you, Public Transport is the best if you have it to use.

As always thanks for your praise on my post, I enjoyed this one because it carries a small sense of victory for the EnviroWarrior Within …

Cheers K.T. Zee


Wendi,
I think there are many Australian’s also hoping the same for the Howard Hogwash Here in Oz.

Maybe we’ll all start being prepared to be a day late and a dollar shorter to put it right, I really hope so, for all our sakes.

Personally, (and I know nothing about American Politics) I think Hillary will be a good thing for the New Carbon Tax and Markets that must come into play over the next five years… what are your views?

Thanks Wendi, for your lovely compliment, too.


Nina,
You are 100% there.

Following the findings of the IPCC Working Group, it looks like a New G-8 summit will replace Kyoto… I think the UN awaits the political see-saw of the next election, to tip, before drawing up the new Carbon Tax infrastructure.

Also the case in the Supreme Court has much bearing as the EPA and Bush Admin. sort it out...

It’ seems that it is okay for the rest of the world to know that we humans have contributed to global warming, but not the Bush Administration… and not unless the supreme judges say so …*cringe*

I keep having visions of the French Revolution run through my head *lol*


Madeline,
War is the real crime, isn’t it? So true…and on so many levels… and all over a substance like oil, which is all but run out anyway…

Very depressing indeed, but I think change is in the air because as you know,

Necessity is the Mother of invention.
-Thomas Edison

The irony for me is that the billions of dollars needed to fund the war, were created from the prosperity of the oil fields in the first place.

Ha! The possession ends up owning the possessor…


~oOo~

I will visit you all over the next few days, as time permits, sorry .. so many good posts to read and so little time to read it all... hope to have tomorrow morning free to do so...

Cheers
)


10. February 8th 2007 @ 11:29. Trina Says:
I'm gonna die aren't I? I'm gonna drown in the filth and mucus that my generation and previous generations created from ignorance and greed. Screw you all, you'll be wishing you hadn't used those chemicals when your lungs are fast filling up with water!

I'm highly delirious, can you tell? Or maybe it seems normal.
11. February 8th 2007 @ 14:26. Wendi Says:
I've never been overly political, but I can tell you I got tears in my eyes (real ones) when I found out Hillary was running. She's been doing live video discussions with Americans via her website, and a few of the questions addressed in the first two days had much to do with the environment, global warming, and what changes can be made. Hillary's answer was at the ready, signaling it was a subject she's considered greatly, primarily in regard to alternative fuels.

Of course, there are political as well as environmental reasons for us to become less dependant on oil, but I'm one of those that really doesn't care about the alterior motives as long as the changes take place.

Heailing energies being sent to Mr. Enviro, as well as to you.

W
12. February 9th 2007 @ 00:06. Lilla Says:
*l-ing ol* Trina,

Great comment, thanks…

I’m afraid we are all going to die in much the same way, probably. Although I’m 19 metres above sea level, I may well own beachside real estate before I die, if I’m lucky?

Of course those who have places in heaven ready and waiting, don’t have to worry about the mess on this side, do they?

Someone told me the other day that we’ll just dream up a new earth, somewhere else. Anything but plant a bloody fruit tree for themselves…

I hope they are right?

You might be delirious from all those fumes, do you think?

caio sweetie


Hi Wendi,

..it sounds really positive indeed. I have felt a growing energy around her and think she’ll push things (as far as she can) of course. She will still be bound by the protocols of our benign democracy. *cringe*

With you all the way on the changes – it is time - bring them on!

Mr Enviro is a little better today although still heavily medicated.

Thank you for your heart felt well wishes, I will pass them on.

*hugs*
13. February 9th 2007 @ 00:19. ChrisB Says:
If only people realised this a couple of decades ago, because now it's pretty much too late. We're all gonna BURN!!!
14. February 9th 2007 @ 00:45. Lilla Says:
Well, actually ChrisB,

I think some may burn, but others will drown, whilst others still may freeze to death...

Maybe many will starve as having been removed from the land, humanity would struggle to provide for itself again, I think...

Having said that, I do think that Technology will provide some great answers and perhaps no one will drown, burn or freeze... unless it's sudden, like int he movies.

Still, I don't think it is too too late, perhaps a little time left.

The statistics show that about 860 billion tons of CO2 has been added to the atmosphere in little over 100 years.

When you consider that the entire atmosphere weighs about 5 million billion tons, it seems okay, but only a little CO2 adds to warming . .. so nobody really knows.

Predicting "the end" is tricky because all the models rely on logical plotting - if this does that, then this goes there and does that, etc etc.

Problem there is Mother nature. She is unpredictable and not dead. We live on a breathing living entitiy and she will take care of the problem one way or the other. Luckily for us all, she is nuturing and tolerant, but for how long?

The earth can heal itself, no doubts and pollution could be turned around in 10 years, but nobody wants to go back to the farm, do they?

Actually, that's a good theme for a post, I'll do a Survey... who wants to go back to the farm? *lol*

thanks for the smarts

L.i.l.l.a
15. February 11th 2007 @ 08:42. Ash Says:
Glacier length - "Records of glacier length can be used to infer temperature history. These records show global warming of approximately 0.6 degrees C from 1850 to 1990 and cooler conditions for the prior few centuries. The majority of glaciers in high mountain ranges outside the polar regions have retreated during the last 150 years, primarily as a consequence of warming."

The pictures of this in 'An Inconvenient Truth" were very disturbing - and such contrast in only a few short years. It has been said that rising sea levels could even see Bribie Island disappearing - if I remember correctly there was a news report on this last year - already the effects are being seen.

The impact of climate change can also be seen in animals - shorter winters mean that hibernation and migration patterns are basically screwed for some species. Other animal groups are in great decline due to the warmer weather, retreating to cooler climates - what will happen when they have no where else to go? Extinction looks likely on the cards, as with some plant varieties who do not have the luxury of being able to relocate.

It is scary to think of the world that our grandchildren will be living in - it makes the younger generation wonder about actually having children when you think of the world they will live in. I saw a documentary on some children in Hong Kong recently - their living conditions are shocking due to pollution and climate change - I wonder if they even know what a blue sky looks like and the health problems that go along with this are appalling. Very sad!

Hopefully by bringing about awareness the masses will start to take these things seriously and begin to respect the planet that we have become so caught up in abusing. I know what you mean about rain water - we used to have one and there is nothing like it. Plus the food that you grow at home is so much sweeter and satisfying than that which you find in the supermarkets.

Job well done Lilla

ash
16. February 11th 2007 @ 22:02. Lilla Says:
Hi Ash,

Thanks for your comment. Your words are so sad and so true... what surprised me the most is that those pictures were always there and we never noticed the truth, until someone points it out ...

I'm just a little inland from Bribie and as I said earlier may end up with beach-side real estate yet! Although I'd miss swimming at Woorim. *lol*

But seriously, the thing that worries me the most is that we, the people, seem to have such little say these days, because our democracy is becoming so beningn - especially where this issue is concerned - as there are no clear policies like health and education.

For example, you may have heard this week that Bob Brown made a great suggestion for solar measures for Australia, that to me, pinpointed the problem completely with a great solution.

Mal Brough said we needed a government who backed it's inventors more, too.

Hear, Hear, Sir!!!

I reeled as both labor and liberal governments joined together to pooh-pooh both ideas????

Why? (and how dissapointing for me ot have Kevin Rudd turn his coat inside out on this one... [not to judge it too quickly, mind...but,...)...

The reason?

Not sustainable. And I don't mean for the planet, I mean not sustainable for politicians.

I thought about it and realised that whatever they give us for energy has, to also generate taxes and revenue to pay for themselves - politicians and the huge public service - and "peace keeping' forces.

It's obvious isn't it?

It's why they have a nuclear agenda, it's free, just keep raping the planet, it's been done for years, why stop now. It generates huge revenue on the world market (consider India and China and Japan [who already has 27 nuclear plants]). It can make Australia rich beyond our wildest dreams. So, we'll be able to have even more and grow fatter still, until we need machines to get us around we're so fat.

And credit can soar too, all the people will be able to get tons of uranium dollar car loans and plasma TV's and God knows what! LOans they can't repay, but it won't matter.

Pah! dystopic in the extreme and indeed, what a future for our children's, children?

However, having said that, I am always one to hope for new alternatives and Richard Branson and Al Gore's "offer" this week of $300,000 to scientists to create a way to get rid of the CO2 in our atmosphere was interesting....?

I'm thinking a great big flume, with a one way valve, shoved through the stratosphere barrier - fan forcing all the CO2 out into the vacumm of space?

Why not?

/)

Maybe then a few nuclear sub-stations (instead of trees), to generate fresh oxygen ...?

Food for thought,
appeciated your comment..
Lilla ...

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