Global Warming or Cooling? Re-post.
Perhaps he is correct, and I apologise if this is the case, as I posted in a great hurry… God knows that despite my credentials, I am no scientist and certainly open to debate. I don’t want to confuse the issue more, so here I am re-posting the point I was trying to make, in the hope of doing the subject justice.
Firstly, I must say that personally, I have a broad view and an open mind on this one, but from studying many graphs taken from ice core samples from around the world, I have come to the conclusion that, global cooling and warming seem a natural phenomenon, which occurs in cycles, end-on-end - much like the smaller cycle of El Nino and La Nina - and probably with, or without our help.
As far as I am aware, the term ‘global cooling’ has been about in many forms, almost as long as science itself. One early use goes back to James Dwight Dana, and his geophysical ‘Contracting Earth’ theory of cooling molten cores, and 'shrinking and crumpling mountains,' long before the discovery of plate tectonics.
One of the sources to seed the idea may have been a 1971 paper by Stephen Schneider, then a climate researcher at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Centre in Maryland, US. Schneider's paper suggested that, '... the cooling effect of dirty air could outweigh the warming effect of carbon dioxide, potentially leading to an ice age if aerosol pollution quadrupled.'
The whole affair of that time ended up in a media frenzy, perhaps prematurely labelled ‘the Ice Age that Never was,’ and the continuation of cooling was quickly drowned out by the global warming issue, somewhat muddying the waters in peoples minds, since.
The fact is that from 1940 to the 1970's the global climate did in fact appear to be cooling. Then a funny thing happened – the much publicised 70’s temperature declines, suddenly slowed to a halt and ground-based recording stations during the 1980s and 1990s, began reading small but steady increases in near-surface temperatures. Just as suddenly fears of "global cooling" quickly changed to fears of "global warming.’
The cited cause?
'Man made atmospheric pollution causing a runaway greenhouse effect,' just as Schneider had predicted ...but not before heating up a little first.
The interesting point of this (and the one I was trying to make in my recent post), is the complexity of the terminology itself, because in the July 21, 1999, edition of the journal Nature, scientists first suggested that their findings led them to believe that global warming can sometimes lead (or be the precursor) to cold weather (global cooling), or indeed a world wide freeze.
These findings can be read <<here>>
NOAA's Global Oceanic Temperature Chart
In fact, major volcanic eruptions can not be ruled out as important contributors to ‘global cooling’ as they add significant quantities of sulphur dioxide into the stratosphere, lowering global surface temperatures. Conversion of the sulphur dioxide to sulphuric acid aerosol in the stratosphere takes many months, so maximum cooling only eventuates '... up to a year after the eruption.' It may take as long as seven years before the cooling influence of the volcanic aerosol disappears completely.
The 1991 eruption of Mt Pinatubo in the Philippines was one of the largest in the past 100 years. The injection into the stratosphere of 14-26 million tonnes of sulfur dioxide led to a global surface cooling of 0.5°C a year after the eruption. The climatic impact of the Pinatubo aerosol was stronger than the warming effects of either El Niño or human-induced greenhouse gas changes during 1991-93.
There are many theories (old and new) and no one can really say for sure, wether or not we are the first advanced industrial/nuclear race on this planet, or not. Therefore we have no guide as to the role that floating oil and other harmful man-made pollutants in the air will achieve. We do know that insecticides and other chemical things are harmful to humans and that wobbles in the earth's orbit have lead to ice ages.
The planet’s lungs are its trees and we are clearing forests too fast, the ice caps and glaciers are continuing to recede, and there can be no mistake that all seem to agree that we are heading into a period of warming Climatic uncertainty as a result.
The IPCC findings are conclusive that mankind is impacting on the balance of warming and cooling, adding to the earths wobbling effect of climatic extremes, where we get colder winters, hotter summers and wetter monsoons along the tropics as a result of the current trend of warming … one example recently in the news was that of Europe’s dependence on the Gulf Stream and what a simple drop of 5 degrees can mean to those relying on it’s warm air currents. What's worrying is that for some years now, global climate models have been predicting a future weakening of the Gulf Stream, as a consequence of global warming, not cooling.
However, during the last 100 years there have been two general cycles of warming and cooling recorded in the U.S. according to the data from NOAA, we are currently in the second warming cycle.
The recent theory is based on the fact that recently ‘..something has happened to our sun?’
After a period of exceptionally high activity in the 20th century, our Sun has suddenly gone exceptionally quiet. Months have passed with no spots visible on its disc. We are at the end of one cycle of activity and astronomers are waiting for the sunspots to return and mark the start of the next, the so-called cycle 24.
Previously showing as a very low impact on the earth’s climate, the fact remains that a complete cessation in sun spot activity (like now), did also occur, during the great medieval chill in Europe, throughout the 17th Century. This rules out the fact that some reports have claimed that increased levels of CO2 in the earths atmosphere can cause increased sun activity.
If this is the case, then it would also be useful to look at the theory that by heating the planet with loads of CO2 and other greenhouse gases, we may well have inadvertently diverted the next naturally occurring ice age from happening, despite the fact that things are dying everywhere and we are becoming short on oxygen.
There are so many more theories of global cooling and I have so little time to list them all, but one thing I do know, ‘Global Cooling’ is a term that means that the temperatures of the planet (or a part of it), are cooling down, usually to a new ice age. Added to that is the fact that our brief view of history has often shown this to have occurred, just after things have warmed up a little first dur to 'global warming' … for whatever reason.
Who knows, by this time next year, ‘Global cooling and global warming’ may have a whole new dimension to them …and as I said earlier, I remain open (and fascinated) to the change as it unfold.
However, I will be the first to continue to stomp on systematic human excesses and pollution and its possible role in the grand scheme of things... No doubts there…
I’d love to hear your take on global warming/cooling?
Fascinating further reading : Really Long Link
Thank you Steve for helping me think it through again.
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Who gave you crap about this post Lilla? It isn't unreasonable and no one yet knows what the weather or this planet will do. Some theoretical physicists believe that there is a sentient quality to the subatomic energy thats binds all things together; so maybe mother earth will get fed up and shrug the lot of us off into space. Raven
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My earlier comment went missing, so:
The argument you presented isn't unreasonable based on what little evidence is available to us, no one really knows what the weather or this planet will do. Some theoretical physicists believe that there is a sentient quality to the subatomic energy thats binds things together; so maybe mother earth will get fed up and shrug us all off into space. Raven
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For me the most relevant lines in your piece are
I think we get too stuck on th emphasis on Gobal Warming, it is actually Climate Change that is causing the problems, warm, cool, temperate it doesn't matter: if the change in Weather occurs unseasonally and in the wrong places then it disrupts nature (like the Bees and the Birds
AND
COULDN'T AGREE MORE...... there is NO DENYING we don't treat the planet as we shoud, humans need to clean up their act. It doesn't matter if we do it in the name of Global Warming, Global Cooling or our dead Uncle Fred, we need to stop polluting and over consuming....simple.......... ..period, do not pass go.......
cheers
Louie
P.S. spoke to my friend yest, he only started Monday so said to call back when he knew which way was up
Oh and Lilla, if a certain unregistered commenter returns, my advice would be to heed the saying 'Do not feed the troll'
(La) Nina
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Not missing at all... I had to switch on the verify each comment toggle to avoid further unwanted and upsetting comments.
Thanks for your comment.
HAHHAHAHAHAHA about these jokers indeed, it was all a part of the wake-up message... very few actually cottoned-on to what I was up to with it.
You are right we really have no idea at all, only intelligent gueses from a group of ants ... and I love the sentient earth (Gaia?) theory myself... how much she puts up with.
Good to see you... and ...look out for your postman!
Lilla ...
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Yeah, a fair bit… halfway through I asked myself why I decided to tackle this issue at all, except that I felt I had to (I wanted to know) … and now it’s done, I’m relieved.
What you have highlighted is the truth and exactly where we find ourselves … and what we have to deal with, regardless of the names…*laughs* exactly as you say.
The dying of animal species is horrifying, I agree. Even though I know over time more may evolve, it’s got to the point where I have stopped looking at those that have ‘gone this week.’ It is terribly sad and as we all know, heaven help us all if the bees continue to die off. We can all take our reams of hypothesis papers then and eat them instead.
However, I don’t feel that gloomy, because I think it’ll all turn around and some of us will survive to a greener (albeit colder) future… another cycle complete, perhaps.
Thanks for your comment.
Lilla …
PS I won’t send mine, until I hear from you, okay?
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Thanks for the good advice, I’ve activated the orble force fields, the only problem is that it takes twice as long to answer all my comments now… sheesh, like I had time to spare. *slapping my forehead* Who knows, maybe in time to come, I’ll be able to drop them down again?
Thanks for the comment and encouragement
Lilla …
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with Nils-Axel Morner, a Swedish scientist and specialist in this field.
So why are we going nuts over this stuff?
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Your links provide an interesting counter-point and a debate that I daresay will go on - until whatever it is that causes the next great catastrophe to mankind - happens.
I tend to agree, that irrefutable evidence of the seas rising isn’t completely clear yet, although there is some proof in low lying areas like Bangladesh, which btw is said to only flood '...because they were made to pull up all the hemp plants in the early 1930’s'… but that’s another story.
The point is well made and as I have said before – particularly – with all issues related to this topic (in particular) from scientists; and that is that they receive a pay packet from various sources, with various agenda’s… the least of all…profit.
One cannot be naive or too one sided where this truth is concerned.
Perhaps the saddest thing of all is that scientists like Nils-Axel become cries in the wilderness in this debate; their genius unrecognised, simply because it does not suit those in power and who stand to loose the most profit, by keeping the people 'nuts.'
Thanks for your opinion.
Lilla …
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As for Bangladesh, it needs a tide protection scheme similar to the Netherlands, then it would be in better shape.
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Once again you have not read my response and I this time I am even agreeing with you... I must ask you though what you think the IPCC agenda is, if not to find the truth in a situation that no amount of computer modelling can predict.
Lilla ...
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Like we say in the US, before Hitler, there was Harvard. And also the Museum of (Un) Natural History in NY.
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That's great information, thank you. I'm off now to google and read up on all this information, it's truth would not surprise me at all as I am not unfamiliar with this branch of reality and how it impacts 'my reality' ... thank you.
Lilla ...